Reasons Why Rigathi Gachagua Can Win the Presidential Race Without Fred Matiang’i Support

Kenya’s political landscape is undergoing a seismic shift. Rigathi Gachagua, once Deputy President under President William Ruto, has been impeached, betrayed, and sidelined by the very administration he helped build. Now, he is rising again—not as a political insider, but as the leader of the Democratic Change Party (DCP) and the national Wantam Movement, a grassroots uprising demanding justice, dignity, and economic liberation.

Without backing from powerful figures like Fred Matiang’i and lacking support from traditionally loyal voting blocs such as the Kisii, Luo, and most of the Kalenjin and Nilotic communities, Gachagua’s presidential bid might seem improbable. But numbers tell a different story.

With Kenya projected to have over 35 million registered voters in 2027, Gachagua’s appeal to Bantu-speaking tribes, marginalized groups, and disillusioned urban youth gives him a realistic path to State House.

Below are the 10 best reasons why Rigathi Gachagua can win the presidency without Fred Matiang’i’s support or the majority of Nilotic votes.

10 Best Reasons Why Rigathi Gachagua Can Win the Presidential Race Without Fred Matiang’i Support

1. Dominant Support from Kikuyu – Kenya’s Largest Tribe (8.1 Million)

The Kikuyu, with an estimated population of 8.1 million, remain Kenya’s largest ethnic group. Gachagua is deeply rooted in Central Kenya and commands the loyalty of this bloc, especially after his impeachment, which many in the region viewed as a betrayal by President Ruto.

His consistent advocacy for agriculture, SME empowerment, and regional equality continues to win hearts across Kiambu, Nyeri, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, and Laikipia.

Pros:

• Deep cultural connection

• Loyal grassroots support

• Economic agenda resonates

• Media access in local dialect

• Seen as a victim of betrayal

• Strong religious base

• High historical voter turnout

Cons:

• Rivalry from Mt. Kenya elites

• Youth looking for alternatives

• Need to energize disillusioned voters

2. Luhya Community Support – Second-Largest Tribe (6.8 Million)

The Luhya, Kenya’s second-largest tribe, number approximately 6.8 million. Many feel disillusioned by Musalia Mudavadi’s alignment with Ruto, which has delivered few tangible benefits to Western Kenya.

Gachagua’s Wantam Movement has found fertile ground here, especially among the youth and small-scale traders in Bungoma, Kakamega, Vihiga, and Busia.

Pros:

• Voter dissatisfaction with UDA

• Economic empowerment message resonates

• No dominant Luhya candidate

• High unemployment pushes protest votes

• Urban Luhya youth leaning toward Wantam

• Church support growing

• Strong DCP mobilization efforts

Cons:

• Mudavadi still influential in parts

• Clan divisions may splinter votes

• Opposition from Azimio remnants

3. Stronghold in Meru, Embu, and Mbeere (3.5 Million)

The Meru, Embu, and Mbeere communities make up a combined voting bloc of over 3.5 million. These Mt. Kenya East communities have historically voted with the Kikuyu and share similar economic and cultural struggles.

Feeling abandoned by UDA policies, they are increasingly drawn to Gachagua’s candid, pro-agriculture narrative.

Pros:

• Shared Mt. Kenya grievances

• Familiarity with Gachagua

• Economic message resonates

• Regional media support

• Church and elders engagement

• Rejection of political tokenism

• Historically high turnout

Cons:

• Some elders still loyal to UDA

• Political competition from area governors

• Mobilization needs more structure

4. Coastal Tribes Back Gachagua – Mijikenda, Swahili, Bajuni (4.3 Million)

The Coastal communities, long loyal to ODM, are changing. With a combined population of over 4.3 million, the Mijikenda, Swahili, Bajuni, and other groups are tired of empty promises.

Gachagua’s Wantam message—focused on land justice, economic equity, and tourism revival—is gaining traction across Kilifi, Kwale, Mombasa, and Tana River.

Pros:

• Land injustice message powerful

• Rising youth unemployment

• ODM fatigue among youth

• Cultural openness to change

• Religious leaders supportive

• Fishermen and traders identify with Wantam

• Good DCP coastal presence

Cons:

• Strong ODM roots still exist

• Voter apathy may affect turnout

• Clan-based divisions

5. Somali, Borana, and North Eastern Support – 2 Million+

The Somali, Borana, and other pastoralist communities in Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera represent a strategic voting bloc of over 2 million. Neglected by successive governments, they are turning to fresh alternatives.

Gachagua’s promises on infrastructure, drought mitigation, security, and Muslim rights align well with the region’s needs.

Pros:

• Pro-devolution policies

• Respect for Islamic values

• Historical marginalization

• Wantam seen as inclusive

• Urban Somali youth leaning Wantam

• Tired of Jubilee and UDA games

• High social media influence

Cons:

• Fragmented clan loyalties

• Terrorism affects campaigning

• Low birth certificate and ID registration

6. Limited Kisii Support Isn’t a Dealbreaker – 2.7 Million

Fred Matiang’i’s core support base, the Kisii/Nyamira region, has only 2.7 million people. While politically active, their national influence is minor, and internal political divisions reduce their collective strength.

Gachagua’s decision to bypass this bloc is strategic—not suicidal.

Pros:

• Region has no unifying candidate

• Youth swing votes possible

• Internal ODM and UDA division

• Religious communities open to new voice

• Some MCA-level support

• Local economic struggles continue

• Political fragmentation benefits Gachagua

Cons:

• Matiang’i still influential

• Cultural pride may block Wantam

• Raila still popular among older voters

7. Minimal Luo Support Won’t Hurt – 3.7 Million

The Luo community, mainly in Nyanza, remains loyal to Raila Odinga and forms a population base of around 3.7 million. Gachagua has no illusions about winning here.

But strategically, he doesn’t need this bloc to win.

Pros:

• Already used to being in opposition

• No expectations to sway vote

• Low priority zone allows focus elsewhere

• Some Luo youth want new economic future

• Can still campaign in Migori (mixed tribes)

• Church leaders showing openness

Cons:

• Strong ODM dominance

• Cultural and political pride

• Minimal influence on local media

8. Limited Kalenjin and Nilotic Support – 20% Max (from 12 Million Voters)

The Kalenjin, Turkana, Maasai, Samburu, and other Nilotic tribes total around 12 million voters. Most remain loyal to UDA and Ruto. Gachagua realistically can expect only 20% support, which translates to 2.4 million votes at best.

This still contributes to his national tally, even though these regions are not his stronghold.

Pros:

• Small percentage still significant

• Discontent in Rift Valley minorities

• Urban Kalenjin youth show signs of shift

• Some Masai leaders joining Wantam

• Can win in Narok, Kajiado

• Elders looking for alternatives

• UDA overpromising hurts its appeal

Cons:

• Ruto remains dominant

• Tight UDA grip on Rift Valley

• Gachagua viewed with suspicion

9. Support from Urban Youth, Mixed Communities – 1.5 Million+

Urban centers like Nairobi, Eldoret, Nakuru, and Mombasa host over 1.5 million urban swing voters from multiple ethnicities. They are unemployed, tech-savvy, and largely anti-establishment.

Wantam’s populist message of economic rescue resonates deeply with this demographic.

Pros:

• Highly vocal online

• Can influence voting patterns

• Easily mobilized digitally

• Low loyalty to parties

• Hungry for change

• Interested in policies

• Reflect country’s real diversity

Cons:

• Prone to voter apathy

• Needs consistent engagement

• Disrupted by propaganda

10. Total Voter Math Favors Gachagua – 18M+ Votes Without Luo, Kisii, or Kalenjin Majority

Let’s break it down:

Gachagua needs ~18 million votes to win in a first-round presidential contest. He can achieve this without Luo, Kisii, or majority Kalenjin support.

FAQs

1. Can Gachagua win without Luo and Kisii support?

Yes. Combined, these regions contribute less than 7 million votes, which he can offset with stronger support from Central, Western, Coast, and North Eastern.

2. What is the DCP?

The Democratic Change Party is Gachagua’s new political vehicle after falling out with UDA.

3. How many Nilotic votes can Gachagua realistically win?

About 20% of the total Nilotic vote, which is ~2.4 million votes.

4. What is the Wantam Movement?

A grassroots, pro-poor, pro-justice political movement led by Gachagua focusing on economic liberation.

5. Is Fred Matiang’i’s support essential?

No. His influence is mostly limited to Kisii and Nyamira, regions Gachagua does not depend on.

6. Does Gachagua have national reach?

Yes. His support extends across ethnic boundaries via youth movements, rural mobilization, and digital platforms.

7. Can he beat Ruto or Raila?

Yes—if he maintains momentum, builds alliances, and ensures high voter turnout in his strongholds.

Conclusion

Despite his impeachment, political exile, and loss of key voting blocs like the Luo, Kalenjin, and Kisii, Rigathi Gachagua is still a serious contender for Kenya’s presidency.

With the backing of over 20 million voters, a fresh party in DCP, and a visionary agenda in Wantam, he is positioned to lead a silent majority tired of tribal kingmaking.

His focus on economic equity, justice, and local empowerment makes him more than just a Kikuyu candidate—he is now a national brand.

Join the Wantam Movement today. Kenya’s future belongs to the bold—be part of history.