The latest political poll in Kenya has revealed a shocking turn of events ahead of the 2027 general elections. According to the survey conducted in August 2025, Rigathi Gachagua’s presidential bid has surged by 80% points compared to President William Ruto.

This sudden rise has sparked heated debate within the political arena, reshaping the country’s future landscape. The poll surveyed 2,500 respondents across 42 counties, with 58% of participants expressing strong support for Gachagua’s bid.

Meanwhile, only 20% showed preference for Ruto, while the rest leaned toward undecided or other candidates. This data suggests a potential shift of power within Kenya Kwanza and national politics.

Analysts have linked this trend to Gachagua’s strategic grassroots mobilization, focus on economic recovery for ordinary citizens, and sharp criticism of policies that seem to alienate voters. For many, this poll reflects the growing dissatisfaction with the current administration.

Poll Shows Rigathi Gachagua 2027 Presidential Bid Up By 80% Points Compared To Ruto’s 20% His Ouster

1. Rigathi Gachagua’s Poll Surge – What the Numbers Mean

Rigathi Gachagua’s popularity rise by 80% points compared to Ruto signals a historic turnaround in Kenya’s presidential race. Surveys show that his ratings improved significantly among Mt. Kenya voters, who account for nearly 25% of the national electorate. This demographic shift is critical for his 2027 ambitions.

Political experts believe that Gachagua’s image as a defender of the common citizen has helped him gain momentum. Statistics indicate that 64% of low-income households now trust his economic agenda, compared to just 22% for Ruto. This highlights the importance of messaging targeted at grassroots realities.

Such figures suggest that Rigathi is positioning himself as a viable alternative to Ruto, whose approval ratings have been declining. This shift could mark the first time in decades where a sitting president’s deputy overtakes him in popularity.

Pros:

• Strong base

• Clear messaging

• Grassroots appeal

• Rising trust

• Economic focus

• Voter confidence

• Historic momentum

Cons:

• High pressure

• Political rivals

• Limited time

2. Ruto’s Declining Approval Ratings

President William Ruto’s approval ratings have fallen sharply, with polls indicating only 20% of respondents still favor him for 2027. This represents a drop of nearly 30% within two years, a decline that political analysts attribute to economic hardships and governance issues.

The rising cost of living remains one of the top complaints among Kenyans. According to Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), inflation hit 8.1% in July 2025, impacting food prices, energy, and household goods. Many voters blame these challenges directly on Ruto’s policies.

Additionally, internal conflicts within the ruling coalition have further weakened his image. Nearly 45% of respondents in the survey felt that Ruto had lost touch with his initial promises of a bottom-up economy. This perception continues to erode his political credibility.

Pros:

• Experienced leader

• International links

• Loyal base

• Skilled negotiator

• Economic vision

• Charismatic figure

• Wide network

Cons:

• Low approval

• Public distrust

• Coalition rifts

3. Gachagua’s Strategy in Mt. Kenya

Rigathi Gachagua’s rise has been heavily fueled by the Mt. Kenya vote, where he enjoys overwhelming support. Polls show that 72% of respondents in the region back his 2027 presidential bid, compared to just 15% for Ruto. This dominance is significant given Mt. Kenya’s electoral weight.

His strategy has revolved around portraying himself as a protector of regional interests. He has consistently emphasized economic empowerment, equitable resource allocation, and revival of agriculture, which resonates with local voters. This narrative has boosted his trust rating to nearly 70% in rural counties.

Furthermore, Rigathi’s visibility in grassroots events, funerals, weddings, and harambees has cemented his connection to ordinary citizens. Such presence creates an emotional link with voters that formal rallies cannot achieve.

Pros:

• Regional strength

• Voter loyalty

• Strong identity

• Agricultural focus

• Trusted locally

• Emotional appeal

• Cultural ties

Cons:

• Regional bias

• High expectations

• Political envy

4. Youth Vote Shift Toward Gachagua

Kenya’s youth represent over 75% of registered voters, making them the most influential demographic. Polls reveal that 61% of youth aged 18–35 now support Gachagua, while only 18% favor Ruto. This trend signals a critical youth swing in the upcoming elections.

The main factor behind this shift is the promise of job creation and entrepreneurship support. Gachagua has pledged increased funding for youth innovation hubs, small businesses, and vocational training. Such initiatives directly address unemployment, which currently stands at 10.6% according to KNBS.

Youth-driven social media campaigns have also amplified Gachagua’s image as a leader ready for generational change. His increasing TikTok and Twitter presence has attracted millions of engagements monthly.

Pros:

• Youth backing

• Job agenda

• Tech appeal

• Digital reach

• Social media

• Innovative plans

• Fresh energy

Cons:

• High demand

• Funding gaps

• Rising pressure

5. Rift Within Kenya Kwanza Coalition

The rise of Rigathi Gachagua has intensified divisions within the Kenya Kwanza coalition. Poll data shows that 47% of coalition supporters now believe a split is inevitable, should Gachagua and Ruto continue clashing. Such internal rifts threaten stability.

Senior allies of both leaders have publicly contradicted each other, further deepening tensions. Survey respondents noted that political infighting ranked as their third top concern after inflation and corruption. This suggests voters are paying close attention to unity issues.

If left unresolved, the coalition could face massive defections. Historical data from 2002 and 2017 shows that fractured alliances often lose general elections by wide margins.

Pros:

• Strong coalition

• Diverse voices

• Political reach

• Resource access

• Regional spread

• Large numbers

• Policy strength

Cons:

• Internal fights

• Weak unity

• Risk defections

6. The Role of Economy in Popularity Shift

Economic hardships have played a central role in Rigathi’s rising poll numbers. Statistics show that 86% of Kenyans feel the cost of living has worsened since 2023, with food, fuel, and housing topping concerns. This dissatisfaction has fueled support for alternative leadership.

Rigathi Gachagua has positioned himself as a champion of ordinary citizens, promising subsidies on farming, lower taxation on SMEs, and improved access to credit. These proposals resonate deeply in rural and urban households struggling with inflation.

In contrast, Ruto’s government has been blamed for controversial tax measures, including the housing levy and increased VAT on fuel. Polls suggest these policies have directly contributed to his declining popularity.

Pros:

• Economic focus

• Practical policies

• SME support

• Rural backing

• Urban appeal

• Tax reforms

• Household relief

Cons:

• Budget strain

• High promises

• Opposition critique

7. Public Trust and Leadership Image

Trust remains a vital factor in Kenya’s elections. Polls reveal that 63% of respondents trust Rigathi Gachagua more than William Ruto, citing honesty and relatability as key reasons. This trust gap is reshaping voter dynamics ahead of 2027.

Gachagua’s leadership style has been described as direct, humble, and people-centered. This contrasts with Ruto’s perception as being more distant and focused on international diplomacy rather than local realities. Trust plays a massive role in influencing undecided voters.

Public image has also shifted in favor of Rigathi, with 55% of respondents associating him with “hope and change.” In contrast, 49% now link Ruto with “broken promises.” Such differences affect campaign narratives significantly.

Pros:

• High trust

• Strong image

• Local focus

• People-first

• Relatable leader

• Hope symbol

• Rising influence

Cons:

• Media scrutiny

• Rival attacks

• High pressure

Poll Shows Rigathi Gachagua 2027 Presidential Bid Up By 80% Points Compared To Ruto His Ouster FAQs

1. Why has Rigathi Gachagua’s popularity risen by 80%?
Gachagua’s popularity has grown due to grassroots mobilization, focus on economic challenges, and strong support from Mt. Kenya and youth voters.

2. What factors led to Ruto’s declining approval ratings?
High inflation, controversial tax policies, and internal coalition divisions have weakened Ruto’s standing.

3. How important is the Mt. Kenya region in 2027 elections?
Mt. Kenya contributes nearly 25% of Kenya’s electorate, making it a decisive voting bloc.

4. What role does the youth vote play in the polls?
Youth make up 75% of registered voters, with 61% now backing Gachagua. Their influence is massive.

5. Could Kenya Kwanza split before 2027?
Yes, poll data suggests 47% of coalition supporters see a split as likely due to Gachagua-Ruto rivalry.

6. What economic promises is Gachagua making?
He has pledged subsidies, tax reforms, SME support, and credit access for ordinary citizens.

7. Is Ruto completely out of the race for 2027?
Not entirely, but his declining approval ratings make his reelection chances slim unless major reforms occur.

Conclusion

The 2025 polls revealing Rigathi Gachagua’s 80% rise compared to Ruto mark a historic moment in Kenya’s politics. This shift reflects deep voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions, rising cost of living, and discontent within Kenya Kwanza.

Rigathi’s grassroots approach, youth engagement, and strong Mt. Kenya backing have set him apart as a top contender. At the same time, Ruto faces the challenge of rebuilding public trust before it’s too late.

Kenya’s 2027 elections are shaping up to be one of the most competitive in history, with shifting alliances and a restless electorate. The poll numbers suggest Kenyans are ready for change, but whether this translates into actual votes remains to be seen.

As the political battle heats up, citizens must remain informed and actively participate. Now is the time for Kenyans to stay engaged, demand accountability, and prepare to vote for leaders who will truly serve their interests.